Political Risk Analysis - Resumption Of Peace Talks Presents Upside Potential To Outlook - JUNE 2017


BMI View: The resumption of peace talks between the Sudanese government and armed groups will present an upside risk to the political outlook. Progress in peace talks would also increase the chance of US sanctions being permanently removed.

New peace talks between the Sudanese government and rebel groups in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile present an upside risk to the country's political outlook. These peace talks, set to begin in April, will be mediated by African Union (AU) chief negotiator Thabo Mbeki with the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel on Sudan (AUHIP). Sudan's main rebel groups - the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in Darfur, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement North (SPLM-N) in South Kordofan and Blue Nile - comprise the Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) alliance, which, along with opposition parties, has agreed to resume negotiations on peace. While this is unlikely to lead to a lasting cessation of hostilities, it does present an upside risk to the domestic political outlook. These are positive developments towards meeting the US benchmarks for the permanent removal of sanctions, which will be reviewed in July. Due to the uncertain outcome, we are not currently changing the Short-Term or Long-Term Political Risk Index scores as a result of these developments, though we note that they could rise accordingly.

Lasting Peace Unlikely, But Stability May Improve

Progress In Peace Talks Would Bolster Long-Term Stability
Sudan - Long Term Political Risk Index
Source: BMI

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