Political Risk Analysis - Legislative Election Results Maintain Status Quo - JULY 2017

BMI View: The absolute majority won by the ruling coalition in Algeria's legislative elections came as no surprise and suggests little change to policy direction in the wake of the result, with mild austerity measures to continue and a consolidation of power with the government. Looking further ahead, political risks are greater as the government ' s ability to fund subsidy programmes will come under threat.

We expect little change to Algeria's current policy trajectory in the wake of the May 4 legislative elections. Not only did the ruling Front de Liberation Nationale (FLN) retain its sizeable majority of seats, but the powers of the National Assembly are relatively limited anyway. This suggests that the government will continue with its policy of mild austerity measures, dampened somewhat by the threat of protest action ( see ' Political Considerations To Prevent Austerity ' , April 13). The FLN won 164 seats, which together with the 97 seats won by coalition partner the Rassemblement National Democratique (RND) means that it holds 56.0%, giving it an absolute majority. That being said, we can identify some themes from the results and the turnout which will prove points to watch over the next several years.

Political Apathy Will Support Government

Long-Term Risks Are Greater
Algeria - Short- & Long-Term Political Risk, Scores Out Of 100
Source: BMI

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