Political Risk Analysis - Kenyatta Victory In Rescheduled Vote Is Most Likely Scenario - NOV 2017


BMI View: Uhuru Kenyatta remains the most likely winner of Kenya ' s rescheduled presidential elections due to take place on October 17, which underpins our expectation of gradual fiscal consolidation in the years ahead. That said, with the potential of a decline in turnout amongst Kenyatta supporters, this analysis also examines the possibility of a victory for challenger Raila Odinga and the impact this would have on the Kenyan economy.

The Supreme Court's decision to annul the result of the August presidential election will elevate political uncertainty over the coming months ( see 'Annulled Result Brings Pre-Election Risks To Fore', September 1). Although our core view maintains that incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta will win the rescheduled vote on October 17 (albeit by a diminished margin), there are a number of risks to this view, not least lower-than-expected turnout in the rescheduled vote. In this scenario analysis we assess four potential scenarios - our core view and three others - and highlight the likely implications of each. While a return to the levels of election-related violence seen in the aftermath of the 2007 vote is unlikely, most scenarios include a relatively high likelihood of unrest. Moreover, while under our core view Kenyatta will be well positioned to push through his policy platform - not least plans for fiscal consolidation - other scenarios acknowledge a high risk of greater spending in the coming years, eventually necessitating a sharper pullback further.

Scenario One: Kenyatta Re-Election With Slim Majority (35% Probability)

Ethnic Loyalties Make Swing Unlikely
Kenya - August 2017 Electoral Breakdown For Kenyatta (Jubilee) & Odinga (Nasa)
Source: BMI, IEBC

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