Political Risk Analysis - Insecurity Closing Window For Economic Reform - MAR 2018


BMI View : The perennial security concerns of the Nigeria n state will increasingly distract the Buhari administration from concentrating on much-needed reform s . This will weigh on President Buhari ' s chances at winning another term in office in the 2019 presidential election, should he choose to run.

Ongoing threats to security and social stability in Nigeria will distract the Buhari government from committing to a more ambitious reform-agenda in the final year of its first term in office. While the economy will continue to benefit from a cyclical upswing and recovery in crude oil prices, this likely focus on security means we see limited scope for President Muhammadu Buhari to implement more meaningful economic reforms beyond consenting to a change in the central bank's exchange rate regime. At this stage, it is still unclear whether Buhari will seek another term in office, but in this environment, we maintain our core view that he is unlikely to secure re-election should he choose to run. Ongoing threats to security and the growing uncertainty around the outcome of the 2019 elections inform Nigeria's relatively poor score in our proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index of 48.5 out of 100, a slight downward revision from its previous score of 49.8 on the back of an uptick in violence in recent months, putting it firmly below the regional average of 53.7.

Buhari Still Struggling To Contain Insecurity

Political Risk Undermines Reform Effort In Nigeria
Nigeria & SSA - Short-Term Political Risk Index
Note: Scores out of 100, 100 = less risk. Source: BMI

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