Political Risk Analysis - Clashes Within Military Signal Heightened Political Risk - MAR 2018

BMI View: Clashes between military units in Cote d'Ivoire suggest that government attempts to bring the mutiny-prone army under control will increase the likelihood of violence and elevate political risk in the coming quarters . There are also serious downside risks to political stability if groups in government encourage further military unrest to enhance their power in the race to succeed President Ouattara in 2020.

Clashes between regular army regiments and the Centre de Coordination des Decisions Operationnelles (CCDO) - a mixed force of police, paramilitary and regular troops - in Cote d'Ivoire's second largest city Bouake suggest that government plans to reform the military will elevate political risk in the short term. Reports from Bouake stated that troops from the 3 rd artillery regiment engaged in firefights with the CCDO forces before driving them from the city, storming their camp and destroying their equipment, ammunition and vehicles. We believe that government efforts to bring the military under control fuelled this outbreak and will continue to elevate political risk by increasing tensions between different parts of the army - which was formed out of rival loyalist and rebel forces after the 2002-2011 civil war. Though we do not expect renewed civil war, there remain downside risks to political stability if factions within the government or legislature encourage further military resistance as a means of exerting power in the struggle to succeed President Outtara - who will step down in 2020.

Risks Abound In G overnment Strategy To Control The Army

Military Clashes In Heartland Of Last Year's Mutinies
Cote d'Ivoire - Map Showing Area Of Unrest
Source: BMI

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