Egypt's economic growth will pick up marginally over the coming quarters, however, a beleaguered tourism sector and muted expansion in fixed investment will mean growth is far below potential and has a minimal impact on unemployment. We remain significantly below Bloomberg consensus on growth in 2017.
The ruling elite's efforts to consolidate power will limit risks of widespread unrest in Algeria over the next few years. In the long term, this strategy will prove unsustainable, as lower oil prices and a lack of economic diversification force Algiers to drastically cut public sector jobs and welfare programmes.
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