North Africa

Monthly political risk, economic forecasts and business environment analysis on each country market

Latest North Africa Analysis

Economic Analysis - Growth To Remain Lacklustre - MAR 2017

Egypt's economic growth will pick up marginally over the coming quarters, however, a beleaguered tourism sector and muted expansion in fixed investment will mean growth is far below potential and has a minimal impact on unemployment. We remain significantly below Bloomberg consensus on growth in 2017.

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Macroeconomic Forecasts - Algeria - MAR 2017

In line with our belief that Egypt's economy has turned a corner, the country's purchasing managers' index (PMI) reading came in at the 50 level which separates expansion from contraction in Februa...

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Political Risk Analysis - Minimal Political Reforms Ahead - MAR 2017

The ruling elite's efforts to consolidate power will limit risks of widespread unrest in Algeria over the next few years. In the long term, this strategy will prove unsustainable, as lower oil prices and a lack of economic diversification force Algiers to drastically cut public sector jobs and welfare programmes.

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