Macroeconomic Forecasts - Uganda - JAN 2018


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f=BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, National Sources
Population, mn 37.55 38.83 40.14 41.49 42.86 44.27 45.71
Nominal GDP, USDbn 26.2 27.8 26.7 25.2 26.8 29.0 31.3
GDP per capita, USD 772 792 735 671 688 721 755
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.7 4.9 5.4 2.5 5.0 5.4 6.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 5.5 3.1 5.5 5.5 5.9 5.8 5.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 6.7 2.1 8.5 5.7 5.0 5.4 5.5
Central bank policy rate, % eop 11.50 11.00 17.00 12.00 9.50 10.00 10.00
Exchange rate UGX/USD, ave 2,579.47 2,646.00 3,068.50 3,484.25 3,648.25 3,750.00 3,850.00
Exchange rate UGX/USD, eop 2,527.00 2,765.00 3,372.00 3,596.50 3,700.00 3,800.00 3,900.00
Budget balance, UGXbn -1,640.3 -2,556.1 -1,874.0 -2,451.7 -2,383.7 -4,162.8 -5,342.7
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.4 -3.5 -2.3 -3.0 -2.6 -3.8 -4.7
Goods and services exports, USDbn 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.3
Goods and services imports, USDbn 7.4 7.8 7.3 6.4 7.0 7.6 8.3
Current account balance, USDbn -1.9 -2.2 -1.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4
Current account balance, % of GDP -7.1 -7.8 -6.3 -3.4 -4.3 -4.4 -4.5
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.5
Import cover, months 5.4 5.1 5.7 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.4
Total external debt stock, USDbn 4.8 5.0 5.8 6.5 7.6 8.4 9.5
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 18.3 18.0 21.6 25.8 28.6 29.1 30.2
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -22.0 -23.9 -25.5 -26.3 -27.8 -29.4 -31.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0