Macroeconomic Forecasts - South Africa - JAN 2018


Macroeconomic Forecasts

Macroeconomic Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 366.8 351.0 317.2 295.0 346.2 354.4 377.0
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.5 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8
GDP per capita, USD 6,821 6,435 5,737 5,266 6,104 6,174 6,492
Population, mn 53.77 54.54 55.29 56.02 56.72 57.40 58.07
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 5.4 5.3 5.2 6.8 5.0 5.6 5.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 5.8 6.1 4.6 6.3 5.4 5.8 5.1
Central bank policy rate, % eop 5.00 5.75 6.25 7.00 6.50 6.50 6.50
Exchange rate ZAR/USD, ave 9.65 10.85 12.77 14.70 13.35 14.00 14.15
Exchange rate ZAR/USD, eop 10.49 11.57 15.47 13.74 13.95 14.10 14.20
Budget balance, ZARbn -160.5 -166.6 -152.2 -171.8 -204.7 -203.8 -215.6
Budget balance, % of GDP -4.5 -4.4 -3.8 -4.0 -4.4 -4.1 -4.0
Goods and services exports, USDbn 113.3 109.5 96.3 89.5 100.6 97.1 98.5
Goods and services imports, USDbn 122.0 115.6 99.8 89.0 98.8 96.7 98.7
Current account balance, USDbn -21.6 -18.6 -13.9 -9.6 -9.3 -10.5 -11.1
Current account balance, % of GDP -5.9 -5.3 -4.4 -3.3 -2.7 -3.0 -2.9
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 45.5 42.7 40.7 40.8 41.0 43.9 46.9
Import cover, months 4.5 4.4 4.9 5.5 5.0 5.4 5.7
Total external debt stock, USDbn 139.8 141.1 137.9 131.3 157.0 161.7 168.9
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 38.1 40.2 43.5 44.5 45.3 45.6 44.8
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 168.7 148.0 149.3 150.6 143.4 140.6 140.5
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -379.8 -411.7 -446.6 -469.6 -489.5 -505.3 -518.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 4.9 4.1 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3