Macroeconomic Forecasts - Nigeria - NOV 2017


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Nigeria 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources
Population, mn 171.83 176.46 181.18 185.99 190.89 195.88 200.96
Nominal GDP, USDbn 508.7 545.7 481.2 397.6 341.0 368.7 406.1
GDP per capita, USD 2,960 3,092 2,656 2,138 1,786 1,882 2,020
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 5.4 5.9 2.7 -1.5 1.5 2.4 3.1
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 8.5 8.1 9.0 15.6 16.1 11.8 9.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 7.9 8.0 9.6 18.6 13.5 10.0 8.5
Central bank policy rate, % eop 12.00 13.00 11.00 14.00 13.50 12.00 10.00
Exchange rate NGN/USD, ave 159.24 165.17 197.78 258.28 319.67 337.00 352.50
Exchange rate NGN/USD, eop 160.30 183.45 199.30 315.33 324.00 350.00 355.00
Budget balance, NGNbn -1,205.1 -835.6 -1,557.8 -2,347.9 -2,963.5 -3,282.2 -3,395.0
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.5 -0.9 -1.6 -2.3 -2.7 -2.6 -2.4
Goods and services exports, USDbn 100.2 84.6 49.0 38.3 41.5 44.7 48.3
Goods and services imports, USDbn 77.3 86.1 71.9 47.2 54.6 63.2 71.9
Current account balance, USDbn 19.2 1.3 -15.4 2.3 9.9 5.7 2.1
Current account balance, % of GDP 3.8 0.2 -3.2 0.6 2.9 1.5 0.5
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 43.6 34.5 29.1 26.2 27.2 28.0 28.3
Import cover, months 6.8 4.8 4.8 6.6 6.0 5.3 4.7
Total external debt stock, USDbn 21.1 24.8 29.0 31.8 32.2 33.1 34.6
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 4.2 4.5 6.0 8.0 9.4 9.0 8.5
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,367.4 2,423.2 2,171.0 1,801.9 2,144.3 2,246.8 2,196.3
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d 2,091.9 2,144.9 1,887.1 1,512.2 1,845.1 1,937.3 1,874.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 35.0 37.6 44.4 38.2 42.0 42.9 43.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 11.0 12.3 10.5 9.2 11.6 12.1 12.9