Macroeconomic Forecasts - Macroeconomic Forecast - MAY 2018


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Egypt 2014-2020)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
National Sources/BMI
Population, mn 91.81 93.78 95.69 97.55 99.38 101.17 102.94
Nominal GDP, USDbn 296.7 317.7 269.3 190.1 245.4 288.5 324.2
GDP per capita, USD 3,303 3,725 3,257 2,389 2,877 3,264 3,554
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.8 4.7 4.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 10.1 10.4 13.7 29.6 17.7 11.8 9.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 10.1 11.1 23.3 21.9 13.5 10.0 9.0
Central bank policy rate, % eop 10.25 10.25 16.25 19.75 16.75 13.25 15.00
Exchange rate EGP/USD, ave 7.08 7.70 10.06 17.85 17.64 17.75 18.25
Exchange rate EGP/USD, eop 7.15 7.83 18.14 17.78 17.50 18.00 18.50
Budget balance, EGPbn -240.4 -267.6 -326.4 -344.9 -381.7 -339.9 -296.6
Budget balance, % of GDP -11.4 -10.9 -12.1 -10.2 -8.8 -6.6 -5.0
Goods and services exports, USDbn 43.8 44.3 35.2 40.6 46.7 50.5 53.2
Goods and services imports, USDbn 76.5 77.8 70.7 72.6 74.6 78.4 82.5
Current account balance, USDbn -2.4 -11.7 -18.3 -14.4 -8.2 -7.1 -7.4
Current account balance, % of GDP -0.8 -3.7 -6.8 -7.6 -3.3 -2.5 -2.3
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 15.4 23.0 26.0 27.5 30.2 31.4 33.0
Import cover, months 2.4 3.5 4.4 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.8
Total external debt stock, USDbn 41.8 48.5 67.2 62.7 55.0 54.4 54.8
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 14.1 15.3 25.0 33.0 22.4 18.9 16.9
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 678.1 710.3 696.2 667.4 686.8 706.9 716.2
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -124.2 -115.9 -160.7 -148.7 -180.7 -169.2 -168.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 48.8 44.3 42.1 48.9 58.6 64.9 71.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 48.3 47.8 51.3 56.4 60.4 64.0 65.9