Macroeconomic Forecasts - Libya - JULY 2017


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Libya 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 77.1 48.3 34.7 38.4 36.1 42.2 48.8
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y -52.1 -24.0 -10.2 -2.7 26.0 13.3 8.8
GDP per capita, USD 12,424 7,716 5,495 6,011 5,563 6,410 7,305
Population, mn 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 2.6 7.1 15.7 25.0 35.0 18.0 14.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 2.6 2.4 9.8 26.0 30.0 23.0 15.0
Central bank policy rate, % eop 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Exchange rate LYD/USD, ave 1.26 1.27 1.37 1.37 2.50 2.80 2.90
Exchange rate LYD/USD, eop 1.23 1.32 1.35 1.44 2.50 2.80 2.90
Budget balance, LYDbn -10.5 -22.3 -26.4 -10.3 -7.2 -5.6 -4.2
Budget balance, % of GDP -10.8 -36.4 -55.5 -19.6 -8.0 -4.8 -3.0
Goods and services exports, USDbn 58.7 24.6 18.5 23.1 32.4 38.8 41.6
Goods and services imports, USDbn 54.0 48.1 31.7 26.3 33.1 38.0 40.4
Current account balance, USDbn 0.6 -26.3 -16.0 -6.1 -3.7 -2.3 -2.1
Current account balance, % of GDP 0.8 -54.5 -46.2 -15.8 -10.3 -5.5 -4.3
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 115.2 86.3 73.4 58.7 49.9 44.9 43.1
Import cover, months 25.6 21.5 27.8 26.8 18.1 14.2 12.8
Total external debt stock, USDbn 4.5 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.4
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 5.8 5.2 8.2 8.2 9.4 8.7 7.0
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 900.8 496.7 438.4 416.7 751.4 864.2 986.5
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d 657.3 313.7 269.9 264.9 596.7 694.1 808.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 12.0 11.8 12.2 9.5 10.0 12.0 14.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 6.5 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.5 6.0