Macroeconomic Forecasts - C?te d'Ivoire - MAR 2018


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Cote dIvoire 2014-2020)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources
Population, mn 22.53 23.11 23.70 24.29 24.91 25.53 26.17
Nominal GDP, USDbn 35.3 32.8 36.8 41.7 46.0 49.9 58.9
GDP per capita, USD 1,567 1,420 1,551 1,715 1,848 1,954 2,250
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 8.8 9.2 8.8 7.8 5.1 5.6 5.9
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.9 1.8 1.5 3.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.9 1.3 -0.2 1.5 2.8 2.6 2.6
Central bank policy rate, % eop 3.50 3.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50
Exchange rate XOF/USD, ave 494.41 591.45 592.88 580.50 570.40 570.40 560.65
Exchange rate XOF/USD, eop 540.28 602.51 623.71 546.40 585.68 560.65 560.65
Budget balance, XOFbn -376.2 -405.2 -638.3 -1,061.7 -1,276.9 -1,093.7 -1,071.9
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.2 -2.1 -2.9 -4.4 -4.9 -3.8 -3.5
Goods and services exports, USDbn 14.8 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.0 17.0 18.0
Goods and services imports, USDbn 13.3 12.7 13.1 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.7
Current account balance, USDbn 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.9 -1.1 -0.9 -1.0
Current account balance, % of GDP 0.2 -0.2 0.1 -2.2 -2.3 -1.7 -1.7
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 4.5 4.9 5.4 6.0 6.6 7.2 7.9
Import cover, months 4.4 5.2 6.1 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7
Total external debt stock, USDbn 9.8 11.4 11.3 12.5 13.8 15.0 16.3
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 27.7 34.6 30.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 27.7
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 36.0 33.0 51.5 51.0 49.9 48.4 47.0
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -1.3 -9.3 6.2 3.4 -0.1 -4.1 -8.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.8 3.5 3.8