Economic Analysis - Economic Growth To Accelerate But Political Risks Loom - JAN 2018

BMI View: Uganda economic growth will accelerate in 2018 owing to rising bank lending and robust government investment. However, we note that the risks to this broadly positive outlook have risen over recent weeks as political risk could see foreign donors withhold budget support.

Ugandan economic activity is set to accelerate over coming quarters on the back of a recovery in bank lending, low inflation and rising public investment. We are forecasting real GDP growth of 5.4% in 2018, up from an estimated 5.0% in 2017, accelerating to 6.2% in 2019. However, the risks to this positive outlook have increased over recent weeks amid rising political uncertainty stemming from the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM)'s plans to change the constitution to allow President Yoweri Museveni to run for a fifth term in 2021.

Growth Momentum To Build On Low Interest Rates And Public Investment

Growth To Accelerate
Uganda - GDP
f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI/UBOS

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