10 Year Forecasts - Government's Head Start In Diversification Drive Will Yield Long-Term Results - JUNE 2016

BMI View: The Gabonese government's early recognition of the limitations of an oil - dependent economic model will yield some positive results over our long-term forecast period, with economic growth to accelerate to 2020 and remain robust thereafter. Efforts at economic diversification will help the country avoid some of the structural pitfalls of the region's other oil producers.

While Gabon's economy has struggled through the collapse in oil prices, the government's early recognition of the need to diversify sources of growth away from the oil sector will leave the country better placed than many of its regional peers over the long term. We expect real GDP growth to average 4.4% per annum between 2016 and 2025, accelerating to 5.0% by 2020 and remaining robust thereafter. Although private consumption will continue to make the largest contribution to headline economic growth, investment and government consumption will play an increasingly important role as efforts at diversification gradually come into effect.

Early Diversity Drive A Positive Start

Diversification Drive Sees Growth Recover After Oil Collapse
Gabon - GDP
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, UN Statistics

This article is part of our West Africa coverage. To access this article subscribe now or sign up for free trial