Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Africa

 

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Macroeconomic Forecasts - Macroeconomic Forecasts - MAR 2015

East & Central Africa January 2015 / Uganda / Economy

BMI View: Following a lacklustre 2012, economic growth in Uganda rebounded in 2013 and broadly speaking we expect this positive momentum to continue over the coming quarters. We predict that real GDP growth in 2014 will come in at 6.5%.

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Risk Summary - Algeria - MAR 2015

North Africa January 2015 / Algeria / Political Risk

The Algerian military has arrested a militant cell on the country's southern border, according to a statement by the Defence Ministry on January 14. The cell, consisting of 12 militants, was planning an assault with the support of 'terrorists based outside its southern borders' the ministry said. However, it did not give details related to the militants' nationalities, location or potential target. The cell has reportedly been dismantled during operations that started in early January. Algeria shares a vast southern border with northern Mali, where Islamist militants are active. With instability prevalent across the vast and poorly monitored Sahel region, militants will remain a substantial risk for the North African countries.

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Political Risk Analysis - Allied Opposition To Challenge BDP Popularity - MAR 2015

Southern Africa January 2015 / Botswana / Economy

BMI View: The political status quo will return following the re-election of the long ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) in late 2014. Ongoing social issues and perceptions of undemocratic leadership will, however, boost opposition support during the present political mandate (2014-2019), enabling these parties, as part of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) coalition, to mount a credible threat to BDP's power in the next parliamentary election in 2019.

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Economic Analysis - Angola To Suffer More Than Nigeria From Lower Oil Prices - MAR 2015

West Africa January 2015 / Nigeria / Economy

Lower oil prices will have a significant impact on Nigeria external and fiscal account picture over our forecast horizon.

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