Africa Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Africa

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Easing Cycle At An End On Rising Inflation And Growth - DEC 2017

East & Central Africa October 2017 / Uganda / Economy

The Bank of Uganda's easing cycle, in which the benchmark policy rate has been reduced by 750 basis points since March 2016, is at an end following an unexpected 50bps cut in early October. Rising inflation, accelerating economic growth and a likely increase in lending to the private sector will prevent the BoU from making additional cuts.


Political Risk Analysis - Symbolic US Pressure Will Not Alleviate Crackdown - DEC 2017

North Africa October 2017 / Egypt / Economy

Despite US aid cuts, there will be little respite in the Egyptian government's crackdown on any political opposition. Reports that Egypt is prepared to cut ties with North Korea will likely result in no further pressure from the Donald Trump administration, which in any case was more symbolic than of a degree that would actually limit Egypt's capabilities.


Political Risk Analysis - Local Leadership Changes Boost Ramaphosa's Prospects - DEC 2017

Southern Africa October 2017 / South Africa / Political Risk

Changing local level leadership in South Africa will increase the prospect for a victory by Cyril Ramaphosa in the ruling African National Congress (ANC)'s December elective conference. However, given deep divisions within the ANC, prospects for significant reform remain slim, while the increasing embrace of legal challenges in the ongoing jockeying for power between the pro and anti-Zuma factions of the party increase the risk that the conference may not be decided in December after all.


Macroeconomic Forecasts - Nigeria - DEC 2017

West Africa October 2017 / Nigeria / Economy